REASON VS. FAITH

"What does Athens have to do with Jerusalem"? So asked the early Church father Tertullian; himself a dedicated reason-hater.

This is the question of the ages - perhaps the ultimate metaphysical conundrum of human thought and life, in my view. It will be a theme of my blog throughout my writing, as it has been throughout my entire life.

Often, I have found my scientific views in conflict with my religious views. Both are ingrained in my life, my experiences, my family life, etc. Perhaps conflict is inevitable, as it surely is endemic to human life and what we experience in our universe. Stars form, grow, blow up and die... Galaxies collide. Planets accrete matter, form, revolve around a star, and perhaps support some type of life here and there in the cosmos. Life evolves through conflict, natural advantages, and suffers extinction. There are more species that have become extinct than there are species alive on earth today. Conflict, conflict...

The glory is that we, as percipient and reasoning human beings (cf. Aristotle's "the rational animal") can at least understand some of the parameters of our existence and the physical workings of our universe. To paraphrase Einstein: the most incomprehensible thing about our universe is that it is comprehensible.

The gateway to our understanding is our collective sensory apparatus. Through this, we perceive. Ah, but "appearances" alone can sometimes be deceiving, as we have found out and as we know. However, our reasoning powers enable us to make sense of the physical world. Hence, reason "fills in the blanks," as it were. To quote Ayn Rand: our "percepts" become "concepts."

Can all of religion be subsumed under the murky heading of "mysticism," as Ayn Rand would have it? Here is where I disagree with her - I do not believe that is a valid assumption. There is indeed a basis for faith in a "prime mover," since we humans cannot fathom how "something comes from nothing." (Ayn Rand would detest this proposition - and I love her - she would be in the "steady state" universe camp, which is fairly roundly discredited by today's astrophysical standards.) A prime metaphysical question: "why is there something rather than nothing"?

For me, the domains of reason and faith are like a binary star system - both are luminous physical objects locked in orbit around each other - neither is "dominant" (necessarily); they both revolve around each other for an eternity (figuratively speaking) and shed their light to their surrounding percipients.

In my own epistemological system, this is where the human paradigm stops - one at the expense of the other (reason or faith), historically, has always lead to horrible conflict and human destruction. Theocracies on one hand (which have never worked - anywhere - at any time), and the colossal, all-powerful "State" on the other extreme (think Communist countries - all founded on their own interpretation of reason, Plato's Republic, and anti-religion).

The USA, on the other hand, has both freedom of and freedom from religion. Its Constitution promotes science (Article 1, Section 8) and commerce. Americans have the freedom to question, reason, ponder, and be skeptical. This is probably the best that we humans can do in trying to make sense of an ever-fascinating existence.

Much more to come...

TTC

BEAR MARKET..?

A couple of posts ago, I said to "take your positions and set your stops," since it seemed, according to all the proprietary technical indicators that I use and trust (inasmuch as "trust" is possible in the always uncertain realm of world stock markets), that an "all clear" signal had finally arrived. Well, it did arrive, we had a quick mini-rally (in certain badly-flogged stocks), and it disappeared just as quickly.

The current market action, taking into consideration its behavior and trajectory since mid-May, surely seems and "feels" like a Bear Market. We have lower highs and lower lows set with regularity, there is no real leadership from any sector, the once proud and prosperous Tech sector (the "Nasdown") is radioactive garbage, and the global markets have suffered quite a bit in the last week because of the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Just what we need, on top of all the week seasonal factors and "vomit comet" stock market - a war in the Middle East to settle the Bear Market question!

How long can the punishment last? Well, your guess is statistically just as valid as the next guys - nobody really knows. If they did, they could have cornered the world's wealth long ago by buying the appropriate puts and calls. Uncertainty is a fact of existence, and surely holds for the stock markets. My best guess, based upon my years of experience in market observation, trading, and investing, is that this will be a textbook Bear Market, lasting ca. 6 months (May - Nov.) and shaving off some 10-20% off of global markets. Some overvalued and overheated markets and sectors have already declined as much since May; some far worse (emerging markets - lately "submerging markets" - gold, etc.)

Look - we have multiple wars and "rumors of wars" (think North Korea and Iran), profit slowdowns from US corporations, much higher interest rates than a few years back, record high oil and gas prices, etc. - shall I go on? The seasonality factor is lousy, too - we have entered the weakest market season of the year - now through September, traditionally some really unrewarding times to be invested in the market.

Coming into view now, as well, are the November elections, which promise to be bitter and divisive. The Republicans could stand to lose big time this fall. It will be interesting. Bottom line is that political uncertainty is never good for the market either, and the election of people hostile to capitalism is never any good. We shall see...

And God knows what the "Fediots" will do to further ruin our already weak economy...

It seems that this market bears the imprint of the hedge funds in every aspect, as well. They seem to be moving and jerking the market every which way. The little guys, still bludgeoned from 2000-02, have long since departed and left the game. We don't really have much "buying power" except for the hedge funds, all playing similar technical angles of buying and selling targets, which would well explain the range-bound, go nowhere overall market we've been in for quite some time now (a few rallies here and there, and just as quick severe declines). Like some Biblical prophecy of "7 years of prosperity and 7 years of famine" (cf. Genesis - the story of Joseph in Egypt), this seems to be the blueprint for 1993-2000 ("prosperity"), and 2000-2007. This current rotten decade has only had one truly good, comprehensive year for the markets - 2003 - smack dab in the middle of some truly miserable years. The US stock market has proven to be a toxic, radioactive waste dump for dead capital...

Best place for new money - Cash! (No longer "trash.") Most money market accounts are paying 4%+ these days (have you noticed?), and the risks in any other asset class at this juncture are enormous. Don't get suckered into taking any big bets right now - you will be sorry.

Beyond plunking new money into cash, my best advice is to wait until the dust settles on some of these debilitating issues - wars, the Fed, the hurricane season, the election, etc. We could be laying the groundwork for a nice (and traditional) fall/winter rally.

TTC

"UH-OH CANADA... "

I love Canada. I have visited there many times throughout the country, and have always enjoyed myself - the scenery, the cities (love Montreal and Vancouver), and the friendly people. I have enjoyed several friendships with Canadians in my life. I have also played with some really terrific musicians from Canada, and I applaud how their country has so much more respect for art, music, and culture overall than do Americans.

I couldn't help but really notice some things politically during the recent brouhaha over the foiled terrorist plot and the hate-mongers taken into custody. The plot they had hatched to blow up Parliament, "behead the Prime Minister," and cause general madness and mayhem was hair-raising, though not surprising (to me, anyway).

Perhaps this will wake up the Canadian left wing. Though I love Canada, I certainly do not love any of the far left wing rhetoric I hear coming out of the country all too often. It's rooted in the nutty left wing "altruist-socialist-collectivist" axis, to borrow Ayn Rand's phrase. They are cousins to their equally ignominious counterparts in America and Great Britain (erstwhile home of Karl Marx), and belong to the class of pussies who think we can all somehow "get along," if we just make an effort to "understand" each other, or rob from taxpayers to "re-distribute wealth" in some sort of "equitable" fashion.

Islamic fundamentalism is the most virulent form of mind poisoning in human history. It is incredibly dangerous, hate-filled and hate-mongering, and it's goal is to cause untold suffering, murder, madness, and mayhem globally. Not to mention abject poverty, ignorance, and totalitarian religious stupidity.

For those who thought in couldn't happen in "liberal," "compassionate," and "tolerant" Canada - this is your wake up call!

Hopefully Canadian politics will come around and gravitate toward the right a bit - anything would be an improvement...

THE "FEDIOTS..."

(Hint: combine the "Fed"; i.e, the "Federal Reserve," and "Idiots," and you get my drift...)

Today's economic scene reminds me all too much of the 1999/2000 era, when the economy and stock market were roaring ahead as the Fed continued on its ruinous path of raising interest rates far too high in order to kill the stock market. It is incredibly annoying - now - as it was then.

Granted, the economy is nowhere near as good now as it was then; triple ditto the stock market, but we have been crawling feebly out of the catastrophic hole that cratered the USA back in 2000/02, with the stock market crash and terrorism, two wars, enormous deficit spending, etc. Why try and kill it?

Back in 2000, Humpty Dumpty was "sitting on his [proverbial] wall." Why did the morons at the Fed openly declare their distate for a roaring market, when it most certainly would've fallen and corrected of its own accord. (Ditto for the present.) Instead, Mr. Greenspan and Co. made a concerted effort to crush the market and succeeded all too well. Never was there a more over-bought and precarious market in the history of the US, and never was there a time when our most highly-placed economic officials should've treaded more lightly.

And you know the rest... Artificially low interest rates, a gigantic and astounding housing bubble (I do feel that US real estate was arguably undervalued during that period, but examine what has ensued! Prices are out of sight where I live in Arizona. Where I work in Hawaii, dumps sell for close to a million dollars; unbelievable!)

I would argue that interest rates have returned to normacly here, and we certainly don't need any more "help" from the morons at the Fed (the "Fediots") to "fine tune" our economy. Any more tightening risks a serious slowdown and consequent recession. Stop, for God's sake!! Nobody wants a replay of 2000-02.

I long for the day when the Federal Reserve will be irrelevant, and more foreign markets and economies will be de-coupled from the US. Someday, what the Fed does will not really matter so much to investors globally, nor will they necessarily focus on the Dow Jones or the Nasdaq (i.e., the "Nasdown"). I look forward to that day - bull markets here and there around the globle, and nary a care about what the welfare-statists in the US are doing to further ruin what was once the greatest and most prosperous nation on earth.

Inflation? I believe the "cure" for high prices is - high prices! If cantaloupe is too expensive at my local Wal-Mart Supercenter, I don't buy the stuff. I'll find a cheaper substitute. Ditto for any other food commodity, or clothing, or electronics, or whatever. Vendors and businesses must compete for my business. And there's a limit to what costs they can pass on to consumers. Sooner or later, people will stop buying over-priced junk and send the sellers packing. Viola - the economy slows in deterministic fashion.

We don't need any "help" from the Fed...

Our markets haven't really moved that much (as compared with the indices) since 10 years ago - just a tad on the Dow and Nasdaq. We have the least prosperous stock markets on the planet in that time period.

Those of you who took positions in emerging markets a while back have prosperoud mightily. May it continue, as I suspect it will. Some sectors have obviously done well (oil and gas have been slam-dunks, for instance). I would offer that this will indeed continue. I don't look for much from the indices; nor do I believe that the long-awaited and predicted "big cap rally" will take place anytime soon, though big cap stocks are demonstrably undervalued.

All of that being said, at this juncture (as I write here in early July), it looks like we have an "all clear" (at least for a few days/weeks), and stocks like HANS, SU, PTR, CELG, CBG, and BHP have snapped back quite nicely. These are some of the premier growth vehicles in the world market. Take your positions and set your stops...